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Little Distress Likely For Multifamily As 2023 Continues

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Multifamily will likely experience little distress this year, despite a deceleration in debt origination since the beginning of 2022.

Activity has “gradually decelerated” since Q1 2022, the second-best quarter on record for debt originations, according to an analysis from Newmark, which also notes that “preliminary loan figures overstate the severity of the slowdown” in Q4.

“The year-over-year comparison is severe, but the fourth quarter of 2021 was a very high bar to match,” the new report notes. “Projected volumes for the fourth quarter of 2022 are still the third-best fourth-quarter performance.”

The Sun Belt accounted for 57.9% of overall multifamily investment in 2022, led by Dallas, Atlanta, Houston and Phoenix, which together accounted for 21.6% of annual volume. Of the top 25 markets by volume, New York, Nashville and Philadelphia posted double-digit year-over-year sales volume growth.

But while December 2022 may have experienced a greater-than-usual seasonal boost as borrowers sought to capitalize on sharp declines in Treasury yields and spreads, Newmark says the question remains as to whether that momentum carried into the first quarter of this year.  With that said, wth the exception of loans originated in 2021, mark-to-market LTVs “are well-contained,” something that can’t be said for many office and retail vintages.

Banks leaned in heavily to the asset class in 2022, with bank exposure to loans secured by multifamily properties increasing by $11 billion from January 2022 to January 2023. But Newmark says this is unlikely to continue unabated, creating a liquidity gap in the market. Banks are also tightening lending standards and shrinking the profile of both assets and sponsors with whom they’re willing to lend.

“Banks are likely to be less active as they digest their expanded loan books, and the GSE’s will be active but static on volumes,” the firm notes. “The recent decline in spreads and reduced volatility in bond yields could incentivize market-driven lenders, such as CMBS, debt funds and life insurance companies to be more active on the margin. There is already some evidence of this in the corporate bond market, with new issuance picking up.”

The market may be also subject to more ups and downs as a result of lending caps on GSEs and a move by the entities to more “mission-driven” lending.

“As the market grows, they are providing less proportional and more targeted liquidity support, which makes a repeat of 2009 less likely but also leaves the market subject to greater ‘normal’ volatility,” the report notes.

Record quantities of debt are on track to mature by 2024, and Newmark says borrowers will face markedly higher borrowing costs as loans mature.

“Higher debt costs on refinancing will lower return for all and will give rise to a range of reactions within the market,” the report notes. “Some borrowers will choose to pay down debt, especially if the asset has appreciated meaningfully. Others will refinance the principal or partially pay down, whereas in a lower cost of capital environment, they would have re-levered. Still others will be unable to make the math work and will need to pursue a loan modification, return the keys and/or source rescue equity at an appropriate price point.”

Despite that, the asset class remains a top destination for capital globally.  International investment in US multifamily assets as a percentage of total US commercial real estate totaled 40.3% in 2022, up 990 basis points from the 2015-2019 average of 30.4%. And among the US regions, total returns in the Southeast have outpaced the broader market on short, intermediate and long-term bases. Garden-style properties throughout the Southeast have been a particularly strong niche within the sector, outpacing the US multifamily index by 440 basis points over the past decade.

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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Multifamily Buyers, Sellers Waiting For The Other Side To Blink

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It’s a bit of same ol’, same ol’ for now in multifamily deal-making two months into 2023 – not a whole lot.

“Buyers are cautious, facing higher financing costs and downgraded projections of future rent growth,” writes, Paul Fiorilla, director of research, Yardi Matrix.

Cap rates averaged 5% at year-end 2022, up from the low- to mid-4% range at the beginning of the year, per Matrix.

“Most apartment owners are holding on to properties unless there is a reason to sell, such as a death, the dissolution of a partnership, or a capital event like a maturing mortgage that creates a need for restructuring,” Fiorilla said.

He said he expects distress to increase.

“Banks have become conservative with the prospect of a widely projected economic downturn, so borrowers are facing both rising rates and less leverage.”

There are several scenarios that will lead to distress in 2023, according to the report.

Properties that were financed at historically low rates in recent years coming up for maturity at higher prevailing rates; properties whose interest rate cap has expired and are now facing a large jump in debt-service payments; and properties that have a downturn in performance.

Indeed, despite the sector’s issues, many investors view multifamily as a safer place to park capital, Fiorilla said.

“Transaction activity will pick up when market conditions return to some semblance of stability and market players believe they can underwrite with a higher level of certainty than exists today,” he said.

Sellers Could Forgo Refinancing and Sell

Ian Bel, managing principal and CEO of Olive Tree Holdings, tells GlobeSt.com that market transaction activity will begin to recover in the second half of 2023.

“Given where debt and rate cap pricing are today, we expect to see an uptick in sellers that are opting to forgo refinancing and put their assets on the market,” Bell said.

“While volatility remains in the treasury rates, the swings have become more muted, allowing more certainty and visibility into the debt pricing. We are optimistic that this reduction in volatility will encourage more lenders to come into the market and hopefully reduce spreads.

“When the capital markets begin to thaw, lender demand is likely going to be largest for stabilized cash flowing assets in Tier I markets.”

Sellers Still Want 2021 Prices and Exit Cap Rates

But John Drachman, co-founder, Waterford Property Company, does not believe that transaction volume on the multifamily side will recover anytime soon.

“The bid-ask spread right now is extremely wide as buyers deal with the rising interest rates mixed with the near-term, choppy property fundamental outlook and sellers still want 2021 prices and exit cap rates,” Drachman said.

“In many ways, both sides are waiting for the other side to blink which has slowed the market. You also have many sellers who locked in long-term fixed-rate financing in 2020-2022 which does not make them feel forced to sell at all.

“You will see transaction volume pick up early next year when the realities of the current cycle hit and groups with short-term floating rate debt feel the pressure to sell. Until then transaction volume will be down.”

Fewer Sellers Means More Competition

Robert Stepp, Principal with Stepp Commercial Group, tells GlobeSt.com that in 2022, Stepp Commercial Group had a significant number of listings with Los Angeles-area sellers who were frustrated with rent control and other problematic apartment legislation.

Stepp Commercial Group completed over $200 million in transactions throughout greater Los Angeles last year and helped identify 1031 exchange opportunities in several states including Arizona, Florida, and Texas.

Clients were looking to trade into states that provided a stronger ROI for the long-term and fewer restrictions, Stepp said.

“We see that trend continuing into 2023 as owners seeking a passive income want to enjoy stability and realize wealth management goals,” he added.

“The market experienced a slowdown in transactions in late 2022 and that is continuing in Q1 2023. With interest rates rising, sellers are having to look at their asking cap rates and adjust their pricing accordingly.

“The good news is that with fewer sellers, there is more competition for the assets on the market. While the listings aren’t resulting in as many offers as a few years ago, they are still garnering strong attention from fewer buyers who have a significant amount of capital to put down, many paying all cash.

“Ultimately, many major markets across the nation continue to experience a dearth of rental housing options. With fewer construction starts due to higher development and labor costs, we can expect to see more multifamily trades later this year as confidence in the market is likely to return as we ease into an adjusted selling environment.”

Staying Committed to Multifamily Sector

Steve Figari, co-founder and managing partner at Shoreham Capital, tells GlobeSt.com that despite an overall slowdown across the industry, markets like Florida and the larger Sun Belt region, are still experiencing significant demand.

“We are focusing on areas with positive supply/demand dynamics and long-term growth rates,” Figari said. “We are also looking at deals that may arise from special situations, including distress, where there are opportunities to recapitalize and reposition properties.”

He said that Shoreham remains committed to the multifamily sector because, “with this approach, we believe we will emerge with an irreplaceable portfolio as market fundamentals stabilize.”

Secondary Markets Could be First to Get New Capital

Mike Madsen, vice president of acquisitions and economics, RealSource Properties, tells GlobeSt.com that month-over-month changes in macro rental rates have normalized since August but lag in Consumer Price Index trailing 12-month measurements.

“The case for the Fed to achieve their desired soft landing is building as employment remains resilient,” Madsen said.

“If the Ukraine-Russia conflict deescalates during the first half of the year that could also put downward pressure on energy, transportation, and food prices. Although uncertainly remains, the record levels of capital ready to bounce could move quickly back into buy mode in Q3, aiming for a discount from peak prices.

“We expect the 10-year rate might front-run a Fed pause, opening a window to lock in lower commercial mortgage rates from the peak. A soft landing and top in the Fed Funds rate in Q3 could be a scenario the lights could turn on as quickly as they turned off as lender cautionary levers and spreads bake in less risk of weakening rental demand.

“Capital could first jump into select secondary metros with strong rent growth expectations without oversupply threats.”

Renters Won’t Be Becoming Home Buyers

Joe Smazal, senior managing partner, Interra Realty in Chicago, tells GlobeSt.com that in the middle-market space, he’s still seeing healthy sales velocity for well-located assets in Chicagoland.

“Private capital remains interested in acquiring multifamily assets for long-term ownership, and investors have been encouraged by strong rental market and operations in Chicago,” according to Smazal. “We also don’t expect to see much attrition from renters going into first-time homeownership this year.”

Relative to other markets that were more popular over the last couple of years, Chicago has shown a lot of stability and, depending on the specific location within the city, still presents opportunities to acquire deals with cap rates at or above interest rates, Smazal said.

“If we see rates come down and/or less trepidation from the macroeconomic uncertainty, we’ll see the floodgates open.”

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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The State Of Multifamily Investing In South Florida

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South Florida’s apartment buildings have traded at record prices as rents continue to climb.

However, there will likely be fewer apartment building transactions this year compared to last year, according to a recent report from Cushman & Wakefield.

The report; authored by Calum Weaver, director of Cushman & Wakefield’s multifamily group in Florida; stated that sales volumes slowed this summer “and will likely be 20 to 30% lower than in 2021.”

That’s because higher interest rates have impacted the profitability of multifamily deals.

Despite the headwinds, multifamily sales activity remains strong as foreign and domestic buyers continue to “pour into South Florida,” Weaver said.

“Investors view it as a safe, stable, and strong asset class,” he added. “Especially compared to turbulent stock, Bitcoin, or exotic NFTs.”

South Florida’s apartment buildings traded at record highs in the first half of 2022, for an average of $345,000 a unit in Miami-Dade, $300,000 a unit in Broward, and $379,000 in Palm Beach County.

The deals add up to $4.96 billion in multifamily transactions, in “the second-highest six-month sales total in history.”

Forty-two percent of South Florida’s 367 multifamily transactions between January and July took place in Miami-Dade, while 34% were in Broward, and 24% were in Palm Beach County.

First-time investors made many of those purchases in a trend that’s expected to continue, according to the report.

Landlords’ net rental income, or effective rent, isn’t rising much as it did in 2021. But their profits continue to increase, the report stated. Over six months, rents increased 7.5% to $2,186 a month in Miami-Dade. In Broward, rent rose 5.3% to $2,326 a month during the same time.

In Palm Beach County, the rent increase was flat, with an increase of less than 1% to $2,326 a month.

It’s the first time average rents in all three counties exceeded $2,000 a month, Weaver wrote.

South Florida has led the nation in rent hikes since the pandemic as well-paid remote workers and executives moved to the region from other parts of the United States, brokers and developers have told the Business Journal.

There are signs, however, that rent increases are slowing down.

Ken H. Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University, has theorized that asking rents will drop as some remote workers return to their points of origin due to employers’ demands that they spend more time in the office.

There is some anticipation that rent increases will stabilize as more apartment units are built in South Florida. A recent report from property technology company Yardi projected that 19,000 apartment units will be finished by year-end.

Weaver’s report noted that year-to-year vacancies increased in Broward to 4.4% from 3.5%. Vacancies also went up in Palm Beach County, to 6.4% from 4.5%.

However, vacancies remain “at historic lows” in Miami-Dade County, at 3%, the report stated.

As more multifamily units are built, vacancies are expected to marginally increase in South Florida.

There are now 39,216 units being constructed in South Florida, including 9,192 apartments that recently broke ground in Miami’s Brickell Financial District and downtown areas, 3,657 units in Hialeah and Miami Lakes, as well as 3,611 units in West Palm Beach, Weaver wrote.

There could be a decrease in new projects as it becomes more difficult for developers to obtain construction loans, the report noted.

But demand for rentals is expected to remain high as home prices rise in tandem with rents.

The median price for a single-family home in South Florida rose to about 13% to $542,878, the report stated, adding that “average home values are increasing at a greater rate than rents, making ownership for many even tougher.”

Meanwhile, South Florida’s population grew by 47,000 people year to date.

“This was more than the 42,842 population increase for all of 2021,” the report declared, adding that the population hike was “equally split among the three counties.”

South Florida’s population is expected to continue to grow, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

“Household formations in South Florida are expected to increase to over 37,000 each year in the next five years,” the report stated.

If half of these new households are renters, “that represents over 18,500 new renters a year in South Florida.”

Rising rents may be a boon for landlords, but they could dissuade some professionals and companies from moving to South Florida, some experts have warned.

Their costs are rising, too, as insurance cost hikes “continue to be a challenge” with premiums per unit ranging from $1,000 to $1,800 a unit, the report stated.

However, Weaver’s report noted that South Florida is home to a strong job market, with unemployment at 3% or lower and salaries increasing by 6% over the last 12 months.

 

Source:  SFBJ

 

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Broker Sentiment Falls On Industrial. Yes, Industrial

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That super hot industrial market? Brokers are losing confidence and seeing strain, according to the first quarter sentiment report from the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors. Office, though, is still on the rebound.

The industrial sector might seem an odd subject for a loss of confidence. The sector has led CRE through the pandemic, scoring top marks time after time and continuing to crush cap rates. But nothing can go on forever.

“The red-hot industrial market is starting to see the effects of high demand and lack of space catching up with each other,” the report stated. “This strain caused by limited supply caused confidence in the industrial sector to drop for the first time in sentiment reporting.”

On-schedule industrial transactions had been increasing for almost a year. That changed in the first quarter of 2022 as they fell by 3%. On-hold transactions were up by 10% and cancelled transactions went from 4% to 6%. A “lack of space seems to have caught up to the industrial sector, which saw a 25% decrease in leasing activity in Q1. Only 61% of industrial SIORs reported high leasing activity, compared to 81% in Q4 2021.” It was the lowest leasing activity in over a year and 93% of respondents said vacancy was lower than a year before.

If you’re a broker, you need property to lease and sell. Without it, there’s little you can do other than perhaps donning a hard hat and heading to a construction site.

There’s been other growing evidence that areas of real estate were pressing the bounds. The CRE Finance Council (CREFC) found that overall sentiment among its board of governors took a nosedive for the first quarter of 2022. Similarly, according to the 2022 RCM Lightbox Investor Sentiment Report, another star, multifamily, is facing headwinds this year. And while there’s some room for cap rates to fall more with additional upward pressure on prices, as First American Financial Corporation notes, things have been getting closer to modeled cap rate bottoms.

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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Here Come The Multifamily Headwinds

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There are usually multiple ways to look at anything. In the case of the Yardi Matrix National Multifamily Report for March 2022, you could emulate the late lyricist Johnny Mercer: accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative, and don’t mess with Mister In-Between.

But what works for an upbeat song isn’t necessarily good for business planning. There is ample good news of increased asking rents and occupancy rates, but in a sense, that’s all in the past. The question investors and operators must ask is what might be coming.

One big consideration is rent growth. “Asking rents increased by $34 nationally, up 2.1%, in the first three months of 2022, which is record growth for a first quarter,” the report said. However, that’s unlikely to continue for a few reasons. One is slowing economic growth as inflation continues to take a toll on activity. Slower growth will affect incomes, meaning the likelihood of fewer gains to cover costs of higher rents. The war in Ukraine is also an issue, according to Yardi because that could help sustain inflation, especially with the effect on energy prices.

Inflation means higher interest rates as the Fed tries to cool the economy. But multifamily acquisition yields are low, at a 4.5% average and down into the threes for prime locations. “Low cap rates caused little concern when the risk-free rate was 1% and the typical mortgage coupon was 2.5% to 3.5%, but when the cost of capital gets more expensive, low yields can complicate transactions and refinancings,” the report says.

Then there’s household formation.

“Although official numbers for 2021 have not been released, some estimates put the number of new households formed in 2021 in the two million range, which makes sense given record multifamily absorption of nearly 500,000,” the report says. “Household growth and absorption are likely to slow to more normal levels in 2022, to about half of last year. That would presage healthy—albeit more moderate—gains in multifamily fundamentals.”

Also, rent growth is not at all nationally even. Migrations to the southeast and west are a big force in rent growth, presumably because there’s a lot of new construction happening, which means higher costs given rising building materials and labor expenses and a steady stream of asking rents not tied to previous occupancy.

Occupancy is cooling in some high-growth metros—that is, the very west and southeast that has led growth because of demographic migration.

“Occupancy rates in several markets have decreased over the last year as demand hasn’t kept pace with deliveries,” the report says. “Phoenix showed the largest decrease in occupancy (-0.5%) in March, followed by the Inland Empire and Las Vegas (-0.4%) and Sacramento (-0.3%).”

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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2021 CRE Investment Hit A Record $746B

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CBRE released its 2021 US commercial real estate investment volume and announced a record $746 billion, up by 86% from 2020. The fourth quarter of 2021 also saw a record $296 billion, increasing 90% year over year.

For a pre-pandemic comparison, volume in 2019 was $542.4 billion, down 1.8%, and Q4 that year was $152.7 billion, down 8.1% year over year.

There’s been a lot of evidence throughout 2021 that the annual tally would be spectacular, with pandemic rebounds, volumes of cash sloshing over the sides of bank accounts as they looked to be invested, and concerns about inflation and the need for hedging. But it’s good to remember that these factors also drove up prices and that the actual deal volume could be different.

Multifamily was the hot sector in 2021 at $136 billion for the fourth quarter and $315 billion for the year, giving it a 45.9% share of the quarter and 42.2% of the year.

For the whole of 2021 across all types of investment, industrial had a 21.5% share; office, 18.3%; 9.9% for retail; and hotel at 5.7%.

By market, greater Los Angeles was at the top. Investment volume there was $58 billion, with New York coming in second at $49 billion and the $41 billion in Dallas coming in third. The fastest growth was in Las Vegas, where $9.7 billion was a 231.8% year-over-year increase. Houston saw 190.5% growth overall at $25.8 billion, while South Florida’s $27.9 billion was a 178.6% jump.

Multifamily saw the fastest growth in Las Vegas, with a 394.3% year-over-year jump. Next was Houston at 379.0% and South Florida’s 240.3%.

In office investment, the top three regions for growth were Austin (410.4%), Richmond (359.5%), and South Florida (277.7%).

Growth rates in industrial were lower, which may owe to the massive rush to build and spend in 2020 during the pandemic, raising the question for investors of whether growth could continue to lag, or if it might be a case of prices topping out to some degree. Top three regions: St. Louis (144.9%), Sacramento (143.8%), and Austin (142.5%).

Year-over-year retail investment was generally higher than industrial, with Seattle seeing 248.8%, Phoenix at 217.8%, and Houston, 210.6%

Volumes of hotel investment were overall lower, but the growth was remarkably higher in Seattle (1612.0%), Tampa (1284.8%), and Florida’s panhandle (1181.3%).

Big sources for cross-border investment were Canada’s $20.9 billion and $15.2 billion from Singapore. The two countries were far and away the biggest sources.

Final quarter numbers on cap rates show that the “everything is driving lower and lower” discussion might be over reactive. Even warehouse industrial saw cap rates of 5.47, not the “threes” many suggest as averages. Multifamily caps were lower, but still in the high fours. The highest: hotels and an average 8.33.

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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Rents Creeped Up, Vacancies Fell Across South Florida At Year-End 2021: Report

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Monthly home rents are rising sharply across South Florida, with some communities seeing as much as a 34% annual increase in December compared with a year ago.

While locals largely blame the wave of newcomers to the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas, experts say there are solutions: build more apartments priced affordably for the working class and companies should boost wages.

Residents here are contending with the perfect storm. There’s been a steady migration in the pandemic of people coming from states with higher wages and cost of living who view Miami apartments as a deal, many firms are relocating to South Florida and there’s a pipeline of apartment buildings where rents range from $1,800 a month to $2,800 for studios and one-bedroom units.

“We have had very few affordable apartments,” said Jack McCabe, owner of McCabe Research & Consulting, a real estate and economic research firm in Deerfield Beach. “People (from the Northeast and Midwest) consider $2,200 for an apartment a great deal compared to where they are coming from. They also have more cash in the bank than people in Miami do. People in Miami can’t afford this, because their salaries are not going up as high.”

Zillow, an online real estate marketplace, reported that rents rose annually in the tri-county area — Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties — to an average of $2,564 in December, up 30%. Real estate brokerage Redfin said in Miami apartment price tags soared year over year to an average of $3,020 monthly in December, a 34% jump.

South Florida’s annual rent hikes exceeded that of New York City and Atlanta, but the asking rates fell in the middle. According to Zillow, New York City had an average rent of $2,772 in December, up 16% from a year ago. Atlanta had an average rent of $1,882, up by 22%.

Rent increases show zero signs of subsiding in this region, experts say.

McCabe said people living in older rental homes also are seeing price increases of 8% to 12% a year.

“It’s still significant, because their income hasn’t gone up 8% to 12%,” he said. “Many people are struggling with their housing cost. Many are paying 50% (of incomes) for their housing expenses. It leaves little or nothing for a car, vacation, kids or even playing a round of golf. It has cut into their lifestyle.”

On the other hand, the area’s home sales market provides little relief to prospective buyers, with steady price increases for houses and condominiums. Miami-Dade County has a median sales price now of $525,000 for houses and $355,000 for condos, while Broward has a median sales price of $500,000 for houses and $236,000 for condos.

Inventory of homes for sale is limited, too. Miami-Dade has two months of supply of houses to buy, and 3.3 months of condos. Broward has 1.1 months of houses on the market, and 1.7 months of condos. A balanced housing market typically consists of six to nine months of inventory for sale.

“For now, buyers are showing up to a store where the shelves have been picked clean and the buyers are fighting over the last loaf of bread,” said Jeff Tucker, a senior economist at Zillow.

Priced-out buyers in Miami will continue to rent, experts say. Many will look to live in the urban core, including Brickell, downtown and Edgewater, where many firms are opening offices. The urban core is experiencing a resurgence of activity in recent months after renters exited these neighborhoods early in the pandemic that began in March 2020, to find homes with more square footage and green space.

Experts say to alleviate the burden of higher rents on consumers more development of affordable and workforce housing and wage increases are necessary. McCabe said the Miami area needs 40,000 affordable housing units, thousands more than what’s in the pipeline in Miami-Dade and the city of Miami.

The reality is expect more transplants coming to South Florida, said Jeff Andrews, a data journalist at online real estate marketplace Zumper, and that means more rent increases this year.

“You still have a housing shortage and renters are still looking to move to their new pandemic reality, because they didn’t in 2020,” Andrews said. “Homeowners did. Renters don’t have the capacity to pick up and move whenever they want. They have to wait, plan for a deposit and save up.”

The list of expected newcomers includes 29-year-old Keyao Pan, a Florida International University history professor. After completing a yearlong post doctorate fellowship at Harvard University, Pan will relocate to Miami this summer.

“FIU is a great place, it does a lot of research,” said Pan, who holds a doctorate from University of Chicago. “I can count myself very lucky, because I know people who had a 10-year gap when they graduated and then they had a stable job.”

He pays $1,400 a month for a 700-square-foot studio apartment in Cambridge, below the $3,637 monthly average for a one bedroom in the Boston area, according to a December Redfin rental report. He hopes to find a 1,000-square-foot, one-bedroom unit for $1,500 a month near the FIU main campus in west Miami-Dade or in nearby Doral. If he can swing it, Pan said, he wants to buy a home with family help for less than $350,000.

“Both Chicago and Cambridge have a higher cost of living,” he said. “Miami is still more affordable than places in the Northeast. It is a growing market.”

Also, investors are swooping in to Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas, buying condo units and then getting high monthly rents for them. South Florida renters may finally get price relief in 2023, McCabe said. That’s because home sellers in the Northeast looking to move south may have a tough time unloading their houses or condos, because they will follow so many people from that region that already have exited, he said.

“The big question,” McCabe said, is “will we see more people moving to South Florida” in 2023 to keep boosting apartment rents.

 

Source:  Miami Herald

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JP Morgan Picks Its Best CRE Categories For Investment

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JP Morgan sees an array of sectors in the US that are benefiting from high user demand and will perform well in 2022, according to its 4th annual Global Alternatives Outlook.

The report is based on the opinions of CEOs, CIOs and strategists from JP Morgan’s $200 billion-plus alternatives platform. It provides a 12- to 18-month perspective on the trends influencing their respective markets, as well as their most promising investment ideas and their thoughts on the underappreciated risks investors may face.

Logistics, Multifamily, Outdoor Industrial Storage Top the List

Logistics properties (particularly infill logistics assets in the so-called last mile between urban storage facilities and consumers); suburban multi-family and single-family housing in Sunbelt states; campus-like clusters (or nodes) of amenity-rich offices for the technology sector; and industrial outdoor storage facilities (including truck terminals, parking and equipment storage) in key urban locations, are set to flourish.

Deeper into 2022, JP Morgan believes that “contrarian investment opportunities in stressed corporate and retail subsectors may start to emerge,” according to the report. “Leasing markets for offices are likely to recover slowly, potentially creating refinancing challenges for asset owners. If declines in asset values overshoot the intrinsic development costs associated with these properties, opportunistic investments in offices may become highly attractive.”

Although contrarian plays are already apparent in retail, this sector is very different, JP Morgan’s report stated.

Core US Real Estate in ‘Sweet Spot’

Economic growth and inflation create a “sweet spot” for core real estate in the US, the report said.

Cash flow-generating assets are likely to become increasingly expensive in 2022 as the real estate market becomes more crowded, according to the report.

At the same time, long-term megatrends, such as the surging popularity of e-commerce transactions and, in the US, population migration to Sunbelt states, continue to drive demand for niche real estate assets, according to the report.

 

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