Even the experts appear reluctant to predict what 2024 holds for the commercial and multifamily mortgage markets, though they hope the year will bring more clarity.
The just-released Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2024 Commercial Real Estate Finance Outlook Survey describes an unsettled market for borrowing and lending – but anticipates conditions will stabilize in the new year.
One thing is clear. Even though borrowing has declined, the level of outstanding mortgage debt has continued to rise. “A decline in sales transaction and refinance volumes has meant less new debt being extended, but it also means that fewer loans are paying off than in many earlier periods. The result is that debt levels continue to rise, but at a pace that is roughly half of what was seen last year,” the report stated.
“The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $37.1 billion (0.8 percent) in the third quarter of 2023 to $4.63 trillion. Multifamily mortgage debt alone increased $26.8 billion (1.3 percent) to $2.05 trillion from the second quarter of 2023.”
Virtually every type of lender increased the dollar volume of its holdings of commercial/multifamily debt.
This has happened even though CRE mortgage borrowing plummeted 53% in the year to date. Loan originations fell 7% between 2Q 2023 and 3Q 2023 and 49% year over year – a slump that affected all major property types.
Mortgages that mature in 2024 could bring more clarity to the prospects for the CRE market – “and could force the issue for many owners,” the report stated.
“Many maturing loans have and will refinance easily – providing new ‘marks’ for the market. Maturing loans that have difficulty refinancing at terms the borrower hopes for, as well as loans that are facing challenges during their terms, may end up being another key to unsticking the markets.”
Underlying these problems are questions about property fundamentals, uncertainty about property values, and higher and volatile interest rates. “Greater certainty around these conditions is a key prerequisite to breaking the logjam of transaction activity” that has left many participants on the sidelines, the report commented, noting that the recent drop in long-term interest rates could bring relief to both cap rates and financing costs. At the same time, it pointed out that the Fed’s tight money policy could still have impacts in the future and tightening of credit is also possible.
Meanwhile, different analysts produce different conclusions on how property values are being affected.
“Most series show cap rates increasing but the pace lags the growth in broader interest rates that many look to as a base comparison,” the report said.
RCA found apartment cap rates rose to 5.2% in 3Q 2023, industrial cap rates to 5.9%, retail to 6.6% and office to 6.9%. MBA’s own models predicted a more substantial rise but said market uncertainty makes the situation unclear.
Each sector of CRE faces difficulties. Offices are grappling with how hybrid work will affect demand for office space, leaving owners to figure out which properties will be most affected. Quality of buildings rather than age, is said to be most important. Industrial and multifamily properties are facing a supply glut that outstrips demand and slows rent growth, though industrial vacancy rates remain low and rent growth remains positive. Retail, especially general purpose buildings, is seeing demand but some malls are experiencing negative net absorption.
As CRE markets confront these challenges, there has been a slow and steady uptick in delinquency rates, the report found. The share of properties with outstanding loan balances that were current or less than 30 days late fell from 97.7% at the end of 2Q 2023 to 97.3% at the end of 3Q 2023. Loans backed by office properties were largely responsible, with delinquent loans up from 4% to 5.1%. However, all sectors saw delinquencies rise, though for multifamily and industrial property the hike was less than one percent. And every capital source saw an uptick in unpaid principal balances.
The findings are based on a survey sent to leaders at 60 of the top commercial and multifamily mortgage origination firms, with a 40% response rate.
“CRE markets are entering the new year relatively stuck,” summed up Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of CRE Research. “Leaders of top CRE finance firms believe that a host of factors may continue to act as a drag – rather than a boost – to the markets. However, they do believe that overall uncertainty will dissipate over the year, helping to boost borrowing and lending above 2023 levels.”