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CRE Debt Challenges Escalate, Threatening Banking Sector

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The U.S. banking system remains under pressure due to significant exposure to the commercial real estate (CRE) market, exacerbated by persistently high interest rates. As a result, banks face increasing risks as potentially troubled loans approach maturity, according to an analysis by Florida Atlantic University (FAU).

Since 2023, troubled debt restructuring for commercial construction, multifamily housing, and both owner-occupied and non-owner-occupied mortgages has surged, tripling to $18 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. This marks a sharp increase from $6 billion recorded in the second quarter of 2023.

While more than half of this distressed debt stems from non-owner-occupied nonfarm and non-residential properties, the FAU report highlights “serious deterioration” in multifamily and commercial construction loans.

As of the fourth quarter, 59 out of the 158 largest U.S. banks face CRE exposure exceeding 300% of their total equity capital. FAU’s U.S. bank exposure screener identifies the most vulnerable financial institutions, including Flagstar Bank, Zion Bancorp, Valley National Bank, Synovus Bank, Umpqua Bank, and Old National Bank.

Across banks of all sizes, 1,788 institutions now have CRE exposure surpassing 300%, up from 1,697 in the third quarter. Nearly 1,000 banks have exposure exceeding 400%, 504 exceed 500%, and 216 surpass 600%. Meanwhile, the aggregate industry-wide CRE exposure remains at 132%, unchanged from the previous quarter.

Regulators have been urging banks to reduce their exposure, but doing so without signaling financial weakness presents a major challenge, according to Rebel A. Cole, a finance professor at FAU’s College of Business.

“To navigate this situation, many banks are resorting to an ‘extend and pretend’ approach, restructuring loans by extending their maturities under the same terms,” Cole explained.

This strategy allows lenders to postpone refinancing in hopes that interest rates will decline, making repayment more manageable in the future.

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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What Defines The Best CRE Investments Today?

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Fluctuating interest rates and shifting demand are key in today’s commercial real estate market, according to Integra Realty Resources’ latest trends report. The Viewpoint 2025 survey collected insights from nearly 600 valuation advisors across the U.S. and the Caribbean.

Anthony Graziano, CEO of Integra Realty Resources, emphasized that fundamental value is driven by cash flow, prime locations, and realistic tenant demand, not speculation. He urged investors to focus on effective management and sustainable rent levels for long-term value, especially in markets with strong job growth and favorable migration trends.

Private investors are diversifying into alternatives like senior housing, self-storage, build-to-rent single-family homes, and data centers. Graziano also highlighted that the best real estate investments go beyond returns and create lasting community impact. Mixed-use developments, such as Nashville Yards and Richmond’s Diamond District, are reshaping underutilized spaces and meeting market demand.

Regarding national policy, Graziano noted that President Trump’s “America First” approach favors real estate growth, but could disrupt previous policies. This includes a potential shift in the federal workforce’s office occupancy and a rise in domestic production due to reshoring trends.

Retail success hinges on consumer confidence, with potential impacts from tax policies and trade tariffs. Retail spaces focused on essentials, like grocery-anchored centers, are likely to perform better in economic volatility.

Multifamily properties remain steady, but affordability concerns could affect investment, especially in markets with high inventory. Graziano cautioned investors to remain flexible and focus on markets with strong job growth and steady population increases.

 

Source:  CPE

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Extend-and-Pretend Drives Record Modifications

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The long-term outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) loans, particularly those in the office space sector, seems to be facing mounting challenges.

According to the data from CRED iQ, there’s been notable growth in loan modifications over the past few years, which reflects the ongoing strain on property owners and the broader CRE market. The numbers show a shift, where properties that might have been able to handle their debt a few years ago are now being pushed to restructure their loans due to economic pressures like high interest rates and changing market conditions.

In particular, examples like the Energy Centre in New Orleans and 17 State Street in New York highlight how properties are struggling with refinancing and the pressure to avoid defaults. Even though certain properties still show solid metrics like occupancy and debt service coverage ratios (DSCR), refinancing remains a significant hurdle, especially with the Fed’s rates holding steady for the foreseeable future.

What stands out from the article is the potential domino effect caused by the combination of tighter lending conditions, higher interest rates, and a volatile bond market. This environment could cause refinancing and loan modifications to become more challenging, especially for lower-tier properties like Class B/C offices and malls. Additionally, the question remains of how long lenders will be willing to keep modifying loans, as the hope for a return to lower rates might fade with the Fed’s current stance and concerns about inflation and national debt.

Do you think there’s a chance that CRE loans might stabilize if the economy shifts, or do you expect the difficulties to persist longer than anticipated?

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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Fed’s Unclear Interest Rate Signals Hinder CRE Trading

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Uncertainty surrounding the direction of interest rates has been a major challenge for commercial real estate (CRE) trading momentum, according to Hessam Nadji, CEO of Marcus & Millichap, during an appearance on Yahoo! Finance.

Private individual investors, high-net-worth individuals, and small partnerships, who make up the majority of CRE ownership, are highly sensitive to interest rate changes. When the market anticipates lower interest rates, sellers tend to hold off, waiting for better values. Conversely, if rates are expected to rise, the opposite occurs, Nadji explained.

“It’s critical for the Federal Reserve to communicate clearly,” he said. “Looking forward, the market is starting to accept that we won’t return to the low levels seen in the previous cycle. While inflationary pressures are easing, they aren’t disappearing, so the Fed’s ability to aggressively lower rates will be limited.”

Commercial real estate values have decreased since peaking in March 2022, and many investors are now using cash to secure properties they’ve been eyeing, with plans to arrange financing when rates fall further, according to Nadji. He also emphasized the importance of the 10-year Treasury yield in driving CRE lending, noting that its recent rise to 4.5% has significantly influenced market sentiment.

“The optimism stems from corrected valuations, steady job growth that doesn’t challenge the Fed, and a combination of these factors alongside the scarcity of new supply,” Nadji added. “Building new developments is costly, so the supply side is in alignment with current market conditions.”

Turning to the potential effects of President-elect Trump’s proposed immigration policies, Nadji identified two key concerns. First, a large migrant population traditionally supports workforce housing rentals, so deportation efforts could negatively impact gateway markets and Class B and C apartment properties. Additionally, changes to immigration policy might affect the construction labor force in the U.S. However, Nadji suggested that the actual implementation of these policies might not match the aggressive scope outlined during the campaign.

Nadji also touched on the impact of tariffs on U.S. trading partners, which could influence supply chains and material costs, including lumber, for new construction.

Overall, while older, outdated office buildings continue to face challenges, Nadji highlighted that the retail and apartment sectors are performing well. Retail, in particular, is seeing a surge in optimism, with a two-decade high driven by the return of consumers to stores and digital brands creating physical showrooms.

“Retail is the industry’s current darling, and apartments are thriving,” said Nadji. “Homeownership affordability is at an all-time low compared to renting, leading to exceptionally strong demand for rental apartments.”

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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CRE Optimism Abounds For 2025, But Distress Challenges Remains

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As 2024 draws to a close, the mood in the commercial real estate (CRE) market has shifted toward optimism, fueled by favorable macroeconomic trends, supportive financial policies, and signs that a new growth cycle is underway, according to Crexi’s Q3 National Commercial Real Estate Report.

“Our industry is incredibly resilient, and sentiment has improved over the past quarter, despite some ongoing challenges,” said Eli Randel, chief operating officer of Crexi. “Market sentiment is as influential as the numbers themselves, and we’re optimistic about an even stronger 2025.”

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts are expected to have a significant impact on the CRE sector, particularly by reducing borrowing costs, stimulating refinancing activity, and encouraging new investments. While economic uncertainty persists, Crexi notes that signs suggest the market has reached its bottom, with early indications of growth in CRE. Along with strong buyer engagement on its auction platform, the firm reports that bid-ask spreads have narrowed since the second quarter, marketing periods have shortened, and capital raising efforts are beginning to recover.

In Q3, overall buying activity increased across all asset types, with industrial rising by 5.5%, office by 5.93%, retail by 4.87%, and multifamily by 4.97%. Offers for properties also saw an uptick, signaling that serious buyers are making moves. On the leasing side, tenant activity showed a slight decline across most sectors, with industrial tenant activity experiencing the largest drop.

Key highlights from Crexi’s report include:

  • The median annual asking rent per square foot for industrial properties remained stable at $13.20 from Q2 to Q3 2024. However, the median annual effective rent per square foot rose from $9.50 to $12, suggesting a possible reduction in leasing incentives, which reflects landlord confidence in the industrial sector.
  • Office tenant activity indicators fell by 2.63% quarter-over-quarter but saw a 1.59% year-over-year increase. This annual rise may indicate that companies are reassessing their space needs, balancing remote work with in-person collaboration as the value of office presence becomes clearer.
  • The median annual asking price per square foot for retail properties saw a slight decrease, dropping from $282.60 in Q2 2024 to $287.37 in Q3 2024. This could be attributed to minor market adjustments, even as retail demand remains strong.
  • Multifamily median annual asking prices remained steady at about $170 per square foot, while the median closed price per square foot increased from $208.17 to $212.71, suggesting strong buyer demand is driving sale prices higher despite sellers holding firm on their pricing.

“Fundamentals remain relatively solid, with supply for most property types largely under control,” said Randel. “However, certain markets and property types may be slow to recover, or may not recover at all. As more favorable pricing emerges, there could be an increase in distressed transactions, providing an opportunity to clean up balance sheets and offload troubled assets.”

Crexi also notes that approximately $2 trillion in CRE loans are set to mature over the next two years, with office properties accounting for nearly one-third of this maturing debt, followed by multifamily, retail, and industrial assets.

 

Source: GlobeSt.

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CRE Borrowers Split On Financing Outlook Despite Improving Economic Conditions

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Despite a challenging environment for commercial real estate financing in 2023 and the first half of 2024, a new report from Altus Group indicates that securing deals is becoming somewhat easier for both bank and non-bank borrowers compared to two years ago.

Altus Group surveyed over 400 U.S.-based commercial real estate professionals who are responsible for arranging financing. The findings reveal that while securing funding remains difficult, a noticeable gap exists in how bank and non-bank borrowers view the current lending landscape. This divide highlights ongoing challenges and inefficiencies within the industry.

Both bank and non-bank borrowers cited benefits such as personalized service, quicker financing, ease of securing funding, and lender stability. However, fewer borrowers from both groups emphasized personal relationships or business rapport as key advantages of working with their lenders.

While there was improved optimism about securing financing over 2023, concerns about high capital costs and economic uncertainty remain significant obstacles. Although interest rates have started to decline, the report notes it may take years for the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts to positively impact commercial real estate financing.

Non-bank borrowers, typically more pessimistic about the market, are looking for streamlined and standardized application processes to navigate the market efficiently. On the other hand, bank borrowers reported higher satisfaction with their lending experiences and expressed more optimism about navigating current conditions. However, they also raised concerns about lender reputations and delays caused by third-party involvement, such as regulators, which extend funding timelines.

Altus Group found that despite the more rigorous application processes faced by bank borrowers, their funding timelines are generally much shorter than those for non-bank borrowers.

The report also included insights from commercial real estate investors on how to improve the financing process. Both borrower groups called for more flexibility from lenders, increased automation in underwriting, and earlier preparation of appraisal data. Bank borrowers stressed the need for streamlined appraisal requirements and flexible term sheets, while non-bank borrowers emphasized the importance of faster data collection and better pre-screening of lenders.

As the gap between bank and non-bank borrowers continues to widen, securing financing in today’s uncertain market will require flexibility and speed. The Federal Reserve’s approach to easing monetary policy will play a critical role in how quickly lenders and borrowers regain confidence and move forward with deals. However, it may take months or even years before rate reductions translate into lower financing costs.

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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Unexpected 254K Jobs Growth Probably Means Lower Rate Cuts

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The September jobs report revealed a gain of over 254,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. This significantly exceeded the Dow Jones economists’ forecast of 150,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Given these results, it seems unlikely that the Federal Reserve will implement another 50-basis-point interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting in November.

Not only did the September jobs figure surpass expectations by 69.3%, but previous months’ data were also revised upward—July’s numbers increased by 55,000 and August’s by 17,000, totaling an upward adjustment of 72,000 jobs.

Wage growth also came in stronger than anticipated, with expectations set at 0.3% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year. The actual figures were 0.4% and 4.0%, respectively.

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate focuses on maintaining price stability and achieving full employment. Recently, Chair Jerome Powell has noted that concerns about inflation have diminished, emphasizing the importance of a robust labor market that should not be neglected.

The unexpected surge in hiring and wage growth suggests the economy may be performing better than anticipated, raising questions about the necessity of further rate cuts.

Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, commented, “With rising oil prices due to heightened tensions in the Middle East and increasing average hourly earnings, the Fed may become concerned about inflation making a comeback. We could see a renewed focus on balancing both aspects of their mandate.”

Oxford Economics echoed this sentiment, stating, “The report makes another 50-basis-point rate cut unlikely. We anticipate a 25-basis-point cut in November and December.”

The markets are responding to this news, with treasury yields on both the 2-year and 10-year notes rising sharply after the unexpectedly strong payroll data and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, noted that by noon on Friday, the 10-year yield had jumped 10 basis points compared to Thursday’s close.

Looking ahead to potential rate cuts in November, the influence of job numbers could be mixed and potentially volatile. As Oxford Economics pointed out, job growth might weaken this month if the Boeing strike continues, although the resolution of port strikes could mitigate some concerns in the October report.

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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Higher-For-Longer Rate Environment Means More Uncertainty For CRE

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Commercial real estate investors, owners and occupiers all have been monitoring whether the Federal Reserve will impose interest-rate cuts in 2024 after rapidly rising rates have substantially increased the cost of doing business.

Earlier this month, the Fed signaled it needed to see more progress toward its inflation target of 2% and decided to maintain its key lending rate. At that meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said gaining greater confidence around inflation “will take longer than previously expected,” although he also said he felt inflation would move back down in 2024.

For executives in commercial real estate, waiting for those rate cuts may prolong the uncertainty being felt in the market today.

Mark Roberts, managing director of research at Dallas-based real estate investment and development firm Crow Holdings, said the underpinnings of why the Fed hasn’t cut interest rates — a strong economy and labor market — are actually good fundamentals for commercial real estate.

He added that for many buyers and sellers of real estate, a reset to the new rate environment has already begun, noting that values are down on average 22% in the past seven quarters. That’s unlocked some deal momentum, but cumulative transaction volume in the first quarter of this year was still at its lowest level since 2013, according to Altus Group. It estimated $31.6 billion transacted across major property types in the U.S. in the first three months of the year, down 28% compared to the same quarter last year.

“The other side of the coin is, what does it mean for those who utilize a lot of leverage in their investments?” Roberts said. “For leveraged buyers, it’s not necessarily the best time, and that’s why a lot of dry powder is stacking up.”

Others in commercial real estate echoed that sentiment, saying there’s a lot of capital sitting on the sidelines that hasn’t yet been deployed — waiting, in large part, for more certainty in the broader U.S. economy.

At the end of 2023, when the 10-year Treasury rate had dropped to below 4% and borrowing rates began to stabilize, there was a greater sense of optimism that that capital raised would be put to work sometime this year, said Andrew Alperstein, partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP’s financial markets and real estate group. But a stronger-than-expected economy this spring has dampened some of the optimism around any forthcoming rate cuts.

Still, even if cuts were to occur later or are more modest than previously expected, Alperstein said most real estate principals have accepted that a sub-3% environment isn’t coming back anytime soon and have begun re-pricing within the new market conditions.

“There’s a reality that has set in that rates are going to be at least moderately higher for a period of time, and investors will hopefully move forward on that premise,” Alperstein said. “What we’ve also seen is that sellers have not really been wanting to sell unless they had to. Folks have been watching closely for evidence of distress sales and forced sales — and yes, we’ve seen some, but not as many as people probably thought. We’ve got an interesting couple of quarters ahead.”

Buyers right now are generally motivated because of equity that’s available, Alperstein said. And more borrowers may be forced to make decisions on their CRE-backed loans if a higher-than-longer rate environment persists.

But more deals in general will mean broader confidence in the market on what the new norm is in returns and values, Alperstein said.

“That will hopefully be a positive thing,” he said. “I think we hoped we’d get this sooner, but some of the uncertainty around rate cuts and the increase in the 10-year [Treasury rate] has slowed that progress.”

Ripple effect on leasing decisions

Although a delay in interest-rate cuts arguably has the most direct impact on commercial real estate buying and selling, it’s also factoring into how companies think about their real estate leasing decisions.

Rob Kane, senior executive vice president and co-leader of Dallas-based Lincoln Property Co.’s corporate advisory and solutions group, said the cost of capital and interest rates ripple through most every significant decision among the occupiers with which his firm works.

“If rates are higher for longer, it means continued uncertainty around decision making,” Kane said. “Internally, it means their business is more expensive to run, and I think we’re seeing, in certain cases, a lot of focus on capital containment and preservation. It’s very difficult for a [chief financial officer] to make a long-term decision when they have uncertainty around long-term rates.”

The past four years have been marked by uncertainty around real estate decisions by companies large and small, with many opting to sign short-term renewals as they figure out how much space they need in a post-pandemic world that embraces hybrid work. Some of that uncertainty has begun to ease, with a greater number of office tenants signing longer deals and relocating to newer towers, but a higher-for-longer rate environment may mean other companies will continue to prolong more-permanent space decisions.

It’s become common for companies to take less square footage in higher-quality office buildings, Kane said. He added that while some tenants will opt to delay their decision-making in an effort to cull spending during a higher-for-longer market, others will try to seize opportunity now.

“There are a significant number of companies … that will be able to make decisions and are going through the process to take advantage of the volatility to trade into higher-quality assets,” Kane said. “I think you’re going to continue to see that playing out across the country.”

That, in turn, will have wide-ranging effects on lenders and owners, Kane said, including accelerating the amount of distress facing lower-quality properties, which tenants are leaving in favor of newer buildings.

Impact on new construction

Since the Fed began increasing interest rates in 2022, new construction across major commercial real estate sectors has slowed.

Industrial construction starts dropped for the sixth consecutive quarter, to less than 40 million square feet breaking ground in Q1. For 2024, CBRE Group Inc. previously forecast that multifamily starts would fall by 45% this year from their pre-pandemic average and by 70% from their 2022 peak.

Office, the most challenged commercial real estate sector, has seen new-construction groundbreakings decline for five consecutive quarters, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. In Q1, JLL recorded less than 300,000 square feet of office construction starts, the lowest total in nearly 40 years of data.

As the cost of financing remains higher than where it’s been recently, and traditional CRE lenders remain more tepid in their lending to the sector, that’ll continue to dampen the future pipeline for most property types, including traditionally hot ones like multifamily and industrial.

“The returns that developers need to target are just not going to be achievable with the cost of financing and the cost of construction and the availability of financing,” Alperstein said. “As we look out 24 months, there’s going to be a window of time there where there will be very little new supply hitting the market, and that will most likely be positive for the fundamentals of multifamily, industrial and even some retail.”

Roberts said persistently higher interest rates will mean the next real estate cycle will shift into a new equilibrium in supply and demand, where structural occupancy rates will be higher than where they’ve been in recent years,

In industrial real estate, for example, the long-term occupancy rate in the past 20 years has hovered about 93%, but the long-term average will start to move higher, closer to 97%, Roberts said. That overall is a good thing, to sustain the warehouse market’s investment environment, he added.

Some owners and developers will continue to turn to new or alternative financing mechanisms to get deals done — including new construction, experts say.

“There is capital out there for creative financing,” said Brent Maier, real estate advisory leader at Baker Tilly. “It comes down to relationships and the appetite for cost. If you go to a nontraditional lender, sometimes that money can be more expensive, but if you have a good asset or a good deal, it generally pencils out if it is attractive.”

 

Source:  SFBJ

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More Hints That The Fed Might Not Cut Rates At All This Year

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The Federal Reserve usually speaks as one. But it’s a big organization with many individuals, including those with their own reputations and areas of responsibility. And some have been coming out to question how many, or if any, interest rate cuts will be on the table for 2024 at all.

Neel Kashkari, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, is the most recent voice wondering what degree of cuts might be possible. He wrote about the multiple factors that were making any prediction difficult. Disinflation has “stalled,” underlying economic demand has remained strong, and monetary policy is “much tighter” than before the pandemic.

In a discussion at the 2024 Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, California, replying to questions from New York Times’ economic reporter Jeanna Smialek, he said, “Inflation seems to have gone sideways while economic growth has remained resilient. It’s led me to question is monetary policy having as much downward pressure on demand as I would have otherwise expected.”

He pointed to the housing market, which has remained “remarkably resilient” given 30-year mortgage rates up to about 7.5%. He acknowledged questions about whether the so-called neutral interest rate — the short-term interest rate when the country sees full employment and stable inflation — might be higher than what the Fed has expected. It’s a point that Vanguard has raised.

If the neutral rate was higher than Fed estimates, “Instead of two feet down on the brakes, maybe only one, or possibly not much at all,” Kashkari said.

There are multiple scenarios he offered going forward, “the most likely” being that “we stay put for an extended period of time, until we get clarity on is disinflation in fact continuing, or has it, in fact, stalled out.”

If disinflation starts again or the country sees “marked weakening in the labor market,” there might be interest rate cuts this year, Kashkari said. “Or if we got convinced eventually that inflation is embedded or entrenched now at 3% and that we need to go higher, we would do that if we needed to.” “That’s not my most likely scenario, but I can’t rule it out.

Back in January, Christopher Walker, a Fed governor, notedthat economic news at the time was good.

“But will it last?” Walker asked. “Time will tell whether inflation can be sustained on its recent path and allow us to conclude that we have achieved the FOMC’s price-stability goal. Time will tell if this can happen while the labor market still performs above expectations. The data we have received the last few months is allowing the Committee to consider cutting the policy rate in 2024. However, concerns about the sustainability of these data trends requires changes in the path of policy to be carefully calibrated and not rushed.”

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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Interest Rate Cap Costs Are Surging Again

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A lot of financing and refinancing strategies among CRE owners have become waiting games. Hold until interest rates eventually go down — putting off loan maturities or new purchases as much as possible — until they can get themselves out of trouble.

One of the types of tools for floating rate interest loans have been interest rate caps, which offer some protection against the increase of interest rates when some benchmark like SOFR crosses a threshold. At least until the rate cap fees started jumping in 2020 and the costs started to crush transactionsby May. Things continued to get worse by October. And then … they kept getting worse. In 2023, the rate cap cost increases were crushing even more CRE transactions.

Concerns eventually started to ease as inflation seemed to be coming under control and there was a growing thought that the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates. Three times during 2024. Granted, that three cuts of probably 25 basis points each would be less than now, but the total 75-basis point amount wouldn’t be terribly compelling.

However, the thought of future rate cuts provided hope. Not now.

“The one-month forward curve shows that investors now think the secured overnight financing rate, or SOFR, which is closely related to the federal-funds rate, will be 4.825% at the start of 2025,” the Wall Street Journal wrote. “This implies up to two small cuts this year. Back in January, six cuts were expected.”

An improvement of cap rates had begun because the risk of the provider having to cover higher interest rates looked as though it would slow and then abate. Not now, because the expectation for rate cuts is becoming more pessimistic.

“The cost of these caps has become a major headache for property owners, according to Carol Ng, a managing director at risk-management firm Derivative Logic,” the Journal wrote. “The price of a one-year extension for an interest-rate cap on a $100 million mortgage at a 3% strike rate is now $2.1 million. Back in January, when the market expected more rate cuts, the same extension cost $1.3 million.”

But there are other estimates. Chatham Financial’s interest rate cap calculator looking at 3% constant SOFR strike rate on $100 million is almost $4.61 million, making that $2.1 million estimate look good in comparison.

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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