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February’s CRE Sales Volume Up Nearly 34% From January

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Retail led an unbalanced sales volume month in February for commercial real estate’s asset classes, according to a report last week from Colliers.

Overall, February’s volume totaling $25.1 billion was up nearly 34% from January sales levels, an above-average month-to-month increase.

Retail was the most heavily traded asset class in February, with $9.1 billion of activity, buoyed by the take-private deal of STORES Capital REIT. (Without it, the volume would have been $2 billion, and it would have fallen to a similar extent as other asset classes).

Office volume in commercial and business centers (CBD) was short of the $1 billion mark for the second month in a row – and the first time since 2010.

CBD office cap rates are up 70 basis points over the past year, and MSCI notes pricing is down 2.2%, though “recent cap rate movement would suggest a far more rapid price adjustment.”

Industrial volume got back to where it was in 2015-18 by increasing 63% from January. The STORE Capital REIT deal was the main reason why.

MSCI reported a 4.4% annual drop based on January to February pricing.

Multifamily sales volume is moving downward at a faster pace, with February’s $4.8 billion traded was the lowest monthly total since February 2012. A darling for so long, it is now the third-least-traded asset class for the first time since January 2015.

MSCI’s repeat sale index shows an 8.7% annual price decline, the sharpest of any asset class.

Hospitality sales volume was volatile as it was down 53% compared to last year but up month-over-month.

MSCI reports the strongest price appreciation of any asset class over the past year at 5.4%, and unlike other asset classes, when annualizing monthly statistics, hospitality shows a 2.1% gain on $2 billion in trades for the month.

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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Hotels Are ‘Hottest’ Asset Class So Far In 2023

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It’s been a tremendous start to 2023 for hotel investors who are enjoying record sales for quality assets in highly desirable and growing markets, according to a report from JLL.

The $850 million sale of the Diplomat Beach Resort (pictured above) in Hollywood, Florida, was the third-largest single-asset sale in US history.

The recent closing of the AC Hotel Phoenix Biltmore set a record price-per-key for upscale select-service assets in the Phoenix market.

Kevin Davis, Americas CEO, JLL Hotels & Hospitality Group, said in prepared remarks that investors are buying into the thesis that long-term growth trends in certain markets will outweigh near-term capital markets dislocation.

“As a result, these investors are willing to buy at cap rates that are lower than the cost of debt because the growth story is so compelling.”

 

The ‘Hottest Asset Class’

Brandon Lewe, vice president of Sales at Ten-X, tells GlobeSt.com that overall, hotels are currently the “hottest” asset class on Ten-X, with momentum building year over year, further highlighting a strong hotel sales outlook.

“Buyers love the category,” Lewe said. “Last year hotels had the highest trade rate (62%) of any asset class and this year, even more investors want to buy.”

Hotel properties had twice the number of bidders per property as the next most popular asset class, he said. “And the trade rate has climbed 10 percentage points – to 72% – for properties that have gone to auction this year.

“We see more inventory coming online and that inventory is high quality, coming from institutional investors. Two of the largest U.S. institutional investors are bringing an influx of new inventory to our platform. ‘SMILE’ states, especially Texas, are hot locations for sellers.”

 

Extended Stay Cap Rates Approaching Multifamily

Matt McElhare, senior director, Extended Stay Brands at Choice Hotels International, tells GlobeSt.com that generally, “everyone is looking to add exposure to the segment given industry performance and profitability relative to traditional hotels.”

Extended stay at a lower price point provides a different return and risk profile than a traditional hotel or upscale hotel.

“We’ve seen cap rates approaching multifamily levels of the last two years,” McElhare said.

“The demand picture (2x supply, emerging trends providing tailwinds e.g. relocations, reshoring of supply chains, infrastructure, etc.) is really strong, which, combined with the difficulty adding supply in the near/medium term due to higher cost of capital and construction costs, is creating a favorable picture for high performance continuing in the extended stay segment.”

He said the performance outlook is bolstering demand for the acquisition of existing extended-stay hotels despite low cap rates and high valuations, particularly in areas of growth such as the Carolinas, Florida, and Texas.

“Lenders have historically treated hospitality financing as one big bucket but we’re seeing encouraging changes there as lenders recognize the different risk/return profile and think about the segment differently,” McElhare said.

McElhare tells GlobeSt.com that activity for large institutional capital in the space has remained elevated despite the higher costs of capital and construction hard costs as well as evaluations for existing extended-stay product.

Higher Occupancy Means Hiring Challenges

The American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA) and Oxford Economics recently reported that it expects hotel-generated state and local tax revenue to set a record at $46.71 billion this year.

Additionally, it sees average U.S. hotel occupancy reaching 63.8% in 2023 – just shy of 2019’s level of 65.9%.

“Staffing is expected to remain a challenge for many U.S. hotels in 2023, as the industry continues to grow its workforce back to pre-pandemic levels,” AHLA said in a release.

Nearly 100,000 hotel jobs are currently open across the nation as of Q4 2022, according to Indeed, even as “national average hotel wages were at historic highs of over $23/hour and hotel benefits and flexibility are better than ever,” according to AHLA.

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

 

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Commercial Real Estate Predictions For 2022

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The commercial real estate industry has undergone a rocky road over the past two years, as pre-Covid-19 predictions have been upended due to the unforeseen nature of the pandemic. But as the world begins its shift toward post-pandemic life, I believe that commercial real estate is on track for a serious rebound this year. While not every area of commercial real estate is set to see an upswing, there are a few predictions that are safe to make based on trends in the market.

Here are a few of my commercial real estate predictions for 2022:

Commercial Real Estate Will Bounce Back

First and foremost, the biggest prediction for 2022 is the recovery of the commercial real estate industry. While it has taken a beating during Covid-19 (and the Omicron variant does present a hurdle toward full recovery), sound fiscal policy could help the industry recover. Monetary policy could also ease some of the long-term inflation pressures as commercial real estate values rise. The demand for real estate will be high, though the areas in which people are investing might look a little different than in previous years.

Industrial Real Estate Will Keep Growing

Industrial real estate has blown up over the past year thanks to the rise of e-commerce. Online retailers such as Amazon are driving the construction of warehouses to house their products, while retailers like Walmart and Kroger are snatching up distribution facilities left and right. Manufacturers are also going to keep investing in commercial real estate as they increase the amount of inventory they keep onsite.

Office Real Estate Won’t Be Out Of The Woods Yet

The one part of commercial real estate that still has some trouble ahead is office real estate. While it won’t be terrible, demand won’t be nearly what it was in previous years as companies continue to hold off on returning to the office. As working from home both full-time and part-time becomes more of the norm, office space utilization will most likely be on a downward trend.

Hospitality Will Rebound

It will be good news for hospitality, as business and leisure travel seem inclined to grow this year. The travel boom will drive luxury hotels to continue to embark on renovation projects that may have stalled during the pandemic. These projects will likely be driven by both city centers and the hotels themselves as the demand for more hospitality spaces continues its upswing.

The Supply Chain Will Be Retooled

The supply chain has suffered quite a blow during the Covid-19 pandemic, which will require some retooling over the next year. Because the space near seaports is not widely available, many developers will have to invest in commercial real estate inland. In order to account for rising transportation costs, manufacturers will most likely have to add distribution facilities in closer proximity to manufacturing facilities.

Although nothing is set in stone for the future of commercial real estate, it’s safe to say that the economy behind commercial real estate is here to stay and that these predictions are well on their way to becoming reality.

 

Source:  Forbes

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