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Cap Rates Adjust As The 10-Year Treasury Yield Fluctuates

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A review by CBRE Econometric Advisors highlights how commercial real estate (CRE) cap rates respond to changes in the 10-year Treasury yield.

Generally, for every 100 basis point shift in the yield, cap rates move similarly: higher yields lead to higher cap rates, while lower yields result in lower cap rates. The sensitivity varies by property type: retail (78 basis points), multifamily (75), office (70), and industrial (41).

Industrial properties show the least sensitivity due to fluctuating demand. Before 2010, they had low demand, limiting cap rate compression. However, the pandemic spurred e-commerce growth, increasing demand, which moderated cap rate growth despite higher risk premiums.

Economic conditions also influence these relationships. During downturns, spreads between cap rates and Treasury yields widen, while they narrow during recoveries. CBRE EA suggests that large federal budget deficits may slow cap rate declines, stabilizing them at higher levels compared to pre-pandemic times.

Besides Treasury yields, other factors impact cap rates. The real rent ratio, which compares current rent values to historical averages, has a strong inverse effect: -69 basis points for office, -54 for multifamily, -38 for retail, and -39 for industrial. Inflation shows weaker inverse relationships, with industrial (-41) most sensitive, followed by retail (-31), office (-28), and multifamily (-20).

Sensitivity of Cap Rates To Macro Factors Chart

Overall, the correlation between Treasury yields and CRE cap rates reflects how interest rates affect property purchase costs, prompting investors to seek higher cap rates.

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

 

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The Fed Says CRE Valuations Are Still Elevated

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The Federal Reserve’s October 2023 Financial Stability Report reads like a slightly early major Halloween trick for commercial real estate — no treat in the pages. Overly high asset valuations, even after all that’s happened so far, and ongoing high interest rates are flashing warning signs for the central bank.

One aspect is of particular concern to CRE professionals.

First, the overall view, based on a periodic survey the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducts, the most recent having taken place from August 10 to October 4. Here is the top line:

“The two most frequently cited topics in this survey — the risk of persistent inflationary pressures leading to a more restrictive monetary policy stance and the potential for large losses on commercial real estate and residential real estate — were mentioned by three-fourths of all survey participants, up from one-half of all participants in the previous survey.”

The grim views are all focused on real estate, whether commercial or residential. For a bit of moderation, the survey was of 25 people, “including professionals at broker-dealers, investment funds, research and advisory fi rms, and academics,” the Fed wrote.

Far from a representative sample, but given the expertise, concerning. About 70% of the experts pointed to commercial and residential real estate as among the biggest risks over the next 12 to 18 months. The only other factors gaining that type of attention were a pairing of persistent inflation and monetary tightening. Auspicious company.

The big problem for CRE is valuation. As the Fed wrote, “Valuation pressures arise when asset prices are high relative to economic fundamentals or historical norms.” An apt description for commercial real estate. And elevated valuation pressures can “increase the possibility of outsized drops in asset prices.”

What is an apparent puzzlement in the Fed’s report is that even as prices have continued to decline, real estate valuations have remained elevated.

“Aggregate CRE prices measured in inflation-adjusted terms continued declining through August,” the report said. “Capitalization rates at the time of property purchase, which measure the annual income of commercial properties relative to their prices, have increased modestly from recent historically low levels but have not increased as much as real Treasury yields, suggesting that prices remain high relative to rental income.”

Office sector prices are particularly elevated, “where fundamentals are especially weak for offices in central business districts, with vacancy rates increasing further and rent growth declining since the May report.” But that doesn’t leave other sectors free and clear.

Some part, maybe significant, of this may be the ongoing lack of price discovery. With transactions down and many sellers holding off, waiting for improved pricing, while a lot of buyers look for bargains in distress, it’s hard to tell how much properties should be worth. CRE has the possibility of seeing significant additional drops in valuation, which would then cause even more problems with refinancing.

 

Source:  GlobeSt.

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Are We In A Shifting Market?

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We have been in a Seller’s market for the last several years. Properties have been sold at values that have not been seen since before the great recession of 2007-2008.  The Federal Reserve has artificially kept the interest rates low and the President in 2020 and 2021 pumped billions of dollars into the economy.  Yes, this helped some people during the pandemic, but also prevented the normal cycle we have seen over the last 40+ years.

In South Florida, every 10 to 12 years, we have seen a down swing in property values, adjustments and corrections for a few years.  The downcycle was due to change around 2020, but, instead, the market heated up.  Why? Due to the movement of large corporations, senior level executives and large private investors moving to South Florida.  This was due in part to the pandemic and no personal income tax.  This kept home prices from declining and values dramatically increasing.  They also sold their investment properties in the high tax states such as NY, NJ, California, Pennsylvania, etc. and purchased replacement properties in Florida.

Why is the market starting to shift now?  Because the Fed is looking at multiple rate increases (4) this year of  75 basis points each meeting. We could see interest rates as high as 6% to 7%, before the end of the year.  This means that Capitalization (Cap) rates must also move up, which will cause the pricing to decline.  We have seen this already occurring in other states in recent weeks.  This will make Buyers happy and put Seller’s in a state of reverse sticker shock, and, in some cases, they may even pass on good sale prices because they do not believe prices are declining.  Buyers are already refusing to accept some of the low cap rates on non-credit tenant transactions.  Transactions will slow in the third and fourth quarter of this year except for seller’s that are now trying to complete their 1031 exchanges.  These only will happen on truly all cash sales with no debt as the current rates are in the 4.75% to 5.5% range from banks and you can’t buy a property with leverage at a 4% to 4.75% cap rate.  The returns are breakeven to negative.

So, I believe we are entering a stabilizing market, we will see adjustments in the next 12 to 18 months, but not a crash.  It won’t be a Sellers or a Buyers’ market, but a market at equilibrium.  This means that both sides will walk away giving a little to make a transaction happen.

If you are a seller there is still time to take advantage of this market, but you need to be realistic and move quickly. Properties need to be properly unwritten with management fees (5%), vacancy and collection rates (5%), reserves for replacements, adjustments for increased property taxes based on sale, and a reasonable cap rate.

SperryCGA can help you still take advantage of the market. We have 60 offices throughout the US, with 8 offices here in Florida.

 

To receive more information on available properties and off-market listings, please complete the form below:

 

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Will Rising Interest Rates Also Propel Upward Movement In Commercial Real Estate Cap Rates?

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Interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are expected this year. One key question still being debated by the commercial real estate industry: What do rising interest rates mean for capitalization rates?

One of the most commonly used valuation measures in commercial real estate, cap rates are determined by dividing a property’s net operating income by its current market value. Cap rates are often used to compare the rates of return on commercial properties, and also give insight into how much risk a property may carry.

Since the pandemic, cap-rate compression has been observed, especially, in white-hot sectors like industrial and multifamily.

There’s not a one-to-one correlation between cap rates and interest rates, although economists say the expected hikes coming this year could have some influence on where cap rates go in 2022.

Brian Bailey, commercial real estate subject-matter expert at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said in a discussion this week hosted by commercial real estate software company Altus Group Ltd. that a rise in cap rates is prompted by many variables. But the prospect of rising interest rates does create risk for higher cap rates.

The risk associated with higher cap rates depends, too, on loan-to-value ratios at origination, Bailey said. Movement in cap rates in an 85% loan-to-value scenario creates a much greater risk of loan default, he said. In fact, any commercial loans that have an LTV ratio of 75% or greater may need to be closely monitored.

Bryan Doyle, managing director of capital markets at CBRE Group Inc., said during the Altus Group panel that the amount of capital waiting on the sidelines to be deployed into real estate should help keep cap rates stabilized, if not further compressing.

In fact, in a five-quarter period ending in the third quarter of 2021, long-term interest rates rose by more than 70 basis points while cap rates for industrial and multifamily compressed by 50 and 75 basis points, respectively, in the same period, CBRE said in a December report. Investors will have to consider whether an increase in cap rates will be offset by higher rents that’ll produce higher net operating-income growth, CBRE noted.

The office sector may be one to watch because of the significant, pandemic-induced changes it’s likely to see, Tim Savage, clinical assistant professor at New York University’s Schack Institute of Real Estate, said at the Altus Group discussion.

“That will impact NOI, and we know that will, therefore, impact cap rates,” he continued. “I would say, (probably), there will be slight upward pressure on cap rates going forward. They are not divorced from interest rates or, especially, from the Fed’s asset buying.”

 

Source:  SFBJ

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